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CBP Canadian Market Wrap (April 14 2025)

Friends and enemies,



Another fun week in Canadian market and political commentary. I think, though, there is one KEY highlight that we should all have watched, listened to - The Loonie Hour host and friend of the CBP Richard Diaz took John Manley and David Herle to the cleaner's on the Canadian economic picture. The two men, who guested on Loonie Hour last week, displayed perfectly the gap between the reality on the ground and the viewpoint of the political uber-elite. Manley and Herle were - as you might expect - unable to debate any of the data related to GDP per capita, investment or other troubling Canadian shortfalls, and even resorted to calling The Century Initiative and it's founder Mark Wiseman's involvement in the Carney campaign "conspiracy shit". 


The political class in Canada needs a wakeup call, and soon, or this type of thinking will continue to tank this once great nation.


Watch the interview here: https://youtu.be/SyFThO8-GHs?si=h6MxsO_qlWZ5DkFm&t=1891 (31:31 start time).


At least you'll be able to get your Amazon widgets on the same day you order them, though! 





Adios!





Market and Political Highlights





U.S. Tariff Pause Impacted Markets
On April 9, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump paused tariffs for most countries, reducing them to 10%, while hiking tariffs on China to 125%. This led to a significant rally in Canadian stock markets, with the TSX index rising over 5% that day, reflecting investor relief. The Canadian dollar also strengthened, appreciating against the USD by about 2.36% by April 11. 
  • Data: TSX closed at 22,506.90 on April 8 and 23,727.00 on April 9; USDCAD decreased from 1.4226 on April 7 to 1.3890 on April 11. 
  • Source: CNBC, Bank of Canada

Liberals Lead in Election Polls
Polls ending April 12, 2025, showed the Liberal Party leading with 44.3% support, ahead of the Conservatives at 38.6%, indicating a tight race as the April 28 election neared. This shift suggests growing support for the two main parties, with 83% backing Liberals or Conservatives, up from 67% previously. 
  • Data: Liberals 44.3%, Conservatives 38.6%, NDP 8.5%. 
  • Source: Nanos Research

Political Debates on Tariff Handling
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Liberal Leader Mark Carney on April 10, 2025, for failing to secure U.S. tariff relief, while other countries received pauses. Poilievre promised to end tariffs on day one if elected, highlighting a key election issue. Carney countered that tariffs never applied to Canada and planned post-election negotiations. 

Notable Candidate Announcement
Priti Obhrai-Martin, daughter of late Conservative MP Deepak Obhrai, announced her run as a Liberal candidate in Calgary East, citing her father's evolving ideals. This move, reported on April 7, 2025, sparked discussions and criticism from some Conservatives, adding intrigue to the campaign. 





Comprehensive Analysis of Canadian Markets and Politics (April 6-12, 2025)
Market Dynamics: Tariff Pause and Currency Movements

The week was marked by a pivotal international development when U.S. President Donald Trump, on April 9, 2025, announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most trading partners, reducing them to 10%, while simultaneously increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This decision, reported by CNBC, came hours after initial higher tariffs took effect, causing market turmoil. The pause was seen as a move to allow trade negotiations, and it had an immediate positive impact on Canadian markets.



Historical data from Yahoo Finance shows the TSX index closed at 22,506.90 on April 8, 2025, but surged to 23,727.00 on April 9, a rise of 1,220.10 points or 5.42%, reflecting investor relief. This rally aligns with reports from The New York Times, noting significant jumps in U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 up 9.5% and Nasdaq up 12.2%, suggesting a global market response.



The Canadian dollar also benefited, with exchange rates from Bank of Canada showing USDCAD decreasing from 1.4226 on April 7 to 1.3890 on April 11, a 2.36% appreciation. This movement, detailed in the daily rates for April 7-11, 2025, indicates investor confidence amid reduced trade tensions, particularly after the tariff pause announcement.





Political Landscape: Election Polls and Campaign Dynamics



The federal election, set for April 28, 2025, dominated political news, with polls reflecting a tightening race. Nanos Research reported on April 12, 2025, that the Liberal Party led with 44.3% support, followed by the Conservatives at 38.6%, and NDP at 8.5%, with other parties trailing. This six-point lead, up from previous polls like Abacus on April 10 showing 42% for Liberals, suggests a consolidation of support, with 83% of Canadians backing Liberals or Conservatives, compared to 67% in the last election, as noted in the poll details.

This polling data, also covered by CTV News, underscores a significant East-West divide, with Liberals strong in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec, and Conservatives leading in the Prairies. The shift highlights the election's competitiveness, with young voters potentially tipping the balance, as mentioned in X posts from CTVNews.





Candidate Dynamics: Cross-Party Moves and Criticisms



A notable political story was Priti Obhrai-Martin's candidacy for the Liberals in Calgary East, reported on April 7, 2025, by CTV News. As the daughter of late Conservative MP Deepak Obhrai, her decision to run for the Liberals, citing her father's evolving ideals, sparked discussions. Articles from The Star detailed her campaign office featuring her father's ashes, highlighting the personal and political significance, and drawing criticism from some Conservatives on social media.

Simultaneously, political debates intensified around tariff handling. On April 10, 2025, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, as reported by CBC News, criticized Liberal Leader Mark Carney for failing to secure U.S. tariff relief, noting that while other countries received pauses, Canada faced continued tariffs. Poilievre promised to end tariffs on day one if elected, contrasting with Carney's stance that tariffs never applied to Canada and his plan for post-election negotiations, as detailed in the article.





Policy Platforms and Broader Context



The week also saw coverage of party platforms, with CBC News on April 6, 2025, comparing election promises. Key differences included climate policies, with Liberals cutting consumer carbon pricing and Conservatives repealing all carbon pricing, and cost-of-living measures, such as Liberals trimming the lowest income tax bracket by 1% and Conservatives dropping it to 12.75%. These platforms, updated ahead of the election, reflect the policy stakes, though no specific major announcements were highlighted during the week.





Market Reactions to Political Events



The tariff pause's market impact was evident, with The Globe and Mail articles on April 9, 2025, noting stocks surging after Trump's announcement, and MarketScreener Canada reporting TSX rebounds on April 8, awaiting tariff negotiations. These reactions, detailed in economic news, underscore the market's sensitivity to political developments, particularly trade policies affecting sectors like automotive and steel.





Conclusion



The week of April 6-12, 2025, was defined by the interplay of international trade policies and domestic election dynamics, with the tariff pause boosting markets, polls showing a tight Liberal lead, and significant political narratives around candidate switches and tariff handling. These events highlight the complex relationship between economic and political spheres in Canada, shaping voter sentiment and market confidence as the election approaches.







Key Citations:

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