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CBP Market Wrap (April 7 2025)

Friends and enemies,

What a week we just had, eh? Tariffs land, and then not land, between the US and Canada (Mexico also exempted) though that fact seems to have evaded the Carney campaign as MP continued to get in front of any mic that would have him to promote the elbows up mentality and levied tariffs of our own on the US. I continue to believe, correctly, that Canada as a faux-powerhouse in this little tiff is completely and hilariously wrong. We’re a wart on the ass of the US economy, even more so the global economy, and no longer export soft or hard power. We have no military might, no cultural sway, and are part of the globally detested woke political culture ruining so many formerly great nations.

Meanwhile in the US, Trump’s plan seems to be working – 10y rates are plummeting, Powell is likely going to be forced into a cut at his next meeting, and countries affected by tariffs are coming to the table in swarms to negotiate an end to the pain. Ask yourself a few questions when you think about tariffs, and the CBC enjoyooorrrs commenting on what they mean:

 

  1. If tariffs in an of themselves are bad, why do we use them as well?
  2. If the American citizens will be the ones who pay for the tariffs, why are we so upset about them and why are we piling on our own?
  3. If the US is the only country hurt by the tariffs, why are countries suddenly begging to come to the table to negotiate them down/away?

 

The obvious answer is because all three of the points – all being endlessly parroted by mainstream media and their zombie carrier pigeons – are wrong in the best case, and intentionally misleading in the worst. Tariffs are a tool, used by all competent nations, to achieve ends that would otherwise be more difficult to realize. CBP listeners know this, obviously, but hopefully these three short points are something you can take with you to your next family dinner, staff meeting, or other place where you feel like causing a ruckus. In the meantime, the market will adjust to the new reality – best to just accept it than pretend or wait for your ideal market to return.

See ya next week.



Key Points
  • It seems likely that U.S. tariff announcements impacted the Canadian dollar and trade, with significant effects on exports.
  • Research suggests the Labour Force Survey showed a decrease in employment, affecting economic health.
  • The evidence leans toward Well Health Technologies' shares tumbling due to a U.S. investigation, impacting investors.
  • It appears the Western Canada Select discount narrowed, benefiting the oil sector.
  • Toronto housing market trends indicate slight price changes, influenced by trade uncertainty.
  • Polling data suggests Liberals lead in the election, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre at risk of losing his seat.
  • Party responses to U.S. tariffs on April 2, 2025, were a major election focus, shaping campaign narratives.
  • The Leaders' Debates participation announcement on April 1, 2025, included the Green Party, potentially affecting debate dynamics.
Economic Market Stories

U.S. Tariff Impact on Canadian Dollar and Trade
Last week, the Canadian dollar weakened as U.S. tariffs threatened trade, particularly affecting autos and oil exports. This is important for Canadians as it could raise costs and disrupt economic stability, given Canada's heavy reliance on U.S. trade.

Labour Force Survey Employment Decrease
The Labour Force Survey, released on April 4, 2025, showed employment fell by 33,000 in March, with the unemployment rate at 6.7%. This matters as it reflects labor market health, influencing consumer spending and economic growth.

Well Health Technologies' Stock Tumble
Well Health Technologies' shares dropped sharply after disclosing a U.S. subsidiary investigation on March 31, 2025. This is significant for investors and the healthcare sector, highlighting regulatory risks for Canadian companies.

Narrowing Western Canada Select Discount
The discount for Western Canada Select heavy crude narrowed to $8.90 per barrel under WTI by April 4, 2025, improving pricing for oil producers. This benefits the energy sector, crucial for Canada's economy, especially in Alberta.

Toronto Housing Market Trends
In March 2025, GTA average home prices were $1,093,254, down 2.5% year-over-year but up 0.8% month-over-month, with increased listings. This is important as real estate impacts household wealth and economic activity, influenced by trade tensions.

Election Stories

U.S. Tariff Announcement and Party Responses
On April 2, 2025, U.S. tariffs were announced, with Canada facing specific levies. Party leaders, including Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, and Jagmeet Singh, outlined strategies, making it a central election issue affecting economic policy and voter choices.

Polling Data Showing Liberals Leading and Poilievre at Risk
Polls from April 4-5, 2025, showed Liberals leading with 49% support, while a projection suggested Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre might lose his seat. This could shift voter behavior and party strategies, impacting the election outcome.

Leaders' Debates Participation Announcement
On April 1, 2025, the Leaders' Debates Commission confirmed five party leaders, including the Green Party's co-leader, would debate on April 16-17. This is significant as debates can influence undecided voters and highlight party platforms.
Comprehensive Analysis of Canadian Economic and Election News for the Week of March 30 to April 5, 2025

This detailed report examines the top economic market stories and the three most significant election-related developments from March 30 to April 5, 2025, providing a thorough overview for stakeholders and the general public. The analysis is grounded in recent news articles, data releases, and polling updates, reflecting the dynamic interplay between economic conditions and political campaigns during this period.

Economic Market Stories: Detailed Insights

The Canadian economic landscape last week was marked by several pivotal events, each with implications for businesses, consumers, and policymakers. Below, we delve into the top five stories, supported by data and expert commentary.
  1. U.S. Tariff Announcements and Their Impact on the Canadian Dollar and Trade
On April 2, 2025, the Canadian dollar (CAD) edged lower, trading at 1.4315 per U.S. dollar, or 69.86 U.S. cents, amid anticipation of U.S. tariffs (The Globe and Mail). U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, including a 25% global tariff on auto imports effective April 3, posed risks to Canada's exports, with 75% of its goods, including autos and oil, destined for the U.S. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, noted the forex market reaction could be "complex and counter-intuitive," reflecting uncertainty (The Globe and Mail). This is critical for Canadians as it could increase costs for imported goods and disrupt trade-dependent sectors, affecting economic stability.
    Aspect
    Details
    Currency Movement
    CAD traded 0.1% lower at 1.4315 per USD, or 69.86 U.S. cents
    U.S. Tariff Details
    25% global tariff on U.S. auto imports effective April 3
    Canada’s Export Dependency
    75% of exports, including autos and oil, go to the U.S.
    Market Reaction Expectation
    Forex reaction could be complex, per Corpay strategist
    		 
  2. Release of the Labour Force Survey Showing a Decrease in Employment
Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey on April 4, 2025, revealing a 33,000 (-0.2%) drop in employment for March, with the employment rate at 60.9% and the unemployment rate at 6.7% (Statistics Canada). This decline, the largest since January 2022, underscores labor market challenges amid tariff uncertainties (BNN Bloomberg). For Canadians, this is significant as it impacts job security, consumer spending, and economic growth, potentially prompting policy responses to stimulate employment.
    Date
    Release
    Details
    URL
    April 4, 2025
    Labour Force Survey, March 2025
    Employment fell by 33,000 (-0.2%), employment rate 60.9%, unemployment rate 6.7%
    /daily-quotidien/250404/dq250404a-eng.htm
    		 
  3. Well Health Technologies' Shares Tumble Due to Investigation
On March 31, 2025, Well Health Technologies Corp. disclosed a delay in its annual financial statements due to an investigation into the billing practices of its U.S. subsidiary, Circle Medical, causing shares to fall sharply (The Globe and Mail). As a major provider of medical-records software and clinic services, this news affects investor confidence and highlights regulatory risks in the healthcare sector, impacting Canadian stakeholders.
  4. Narrowing of the Western Canada Select (WCS) Discount
By April 4, 2025, the discount for Western Canada Select heavy crude narrowed to $8.90 per barrel under West Texas Intermediate (WTI), entering sub-$9 territory, as reported by BOE Report (BOE Report). This narrowing, driven by tariff-related market adjustments, improves pricing for Canadian oil producers, benefiting the energy sector and potentially boosting economic activity in oil-producing regions like Alberta.
  5. Toronto Housing Market Trends
In March 2025, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw an average home price of $1,093,254, down 2.5% year-over-year but up 0.8% month-over-month, with listings up significantly, according to WOWA.ca (WOWA.ca). The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) noted increased affordability, influenced by trade uncertainty, which could affect buyer behavior and investment decisions, given real estate's role in household wealth (TRREB Market Watch).
Election Stories: In-Depth Analysis

The federal election campaign, set for April 28, 2025, was in full swing last week, with several key developments shaping the narrative. Here, we detail the three biggest stories, reflecting their impact on voter perceptions and campaign dynamics.
  1. U.S. Tariff Announcement and Party Responses (April 2, 2025)
On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs, with Canada exempt from sweeping reciprocal tariffs but still facing 25% levies on steel, aluminum, autos, and non-USMCA compliant goods (Global News). Prime Minister Mark Carney promised countermeasures to protect Canadian workers, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre advocated for "targeted reciprocal tariffs" to minimize domestic impact, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh urged support for affected workers (CTV News). This event, occurring early in the campaign, underscored the trade war's centrality, influencing voter priorities on economic policy and leadership.
  2. Polling Data Showing Liberals Leading and Poilievre at Risk (April 4-5, 2025)
Polling data from EKOS, updated on April 4, 2025, showed Liberals at 49% and Conservatives at 34%, with a projection that Pierre Poilievre might lose his seat by 5 points, as reported by Cult MTL (Cult MTL). Nanos polls on April 5, 2025, confirmed a similar trend, with a sample size of 1,174 and a margin of error of 2.8% (The Globe and Mail). This shift, driven by tariff tensions and national pride, could alter campaign strategies and voter behavior, given Poilievre's leadership role.
    Date Updated
    Sample Size
    Margin of Error
    Methodology URL
    April 5, 2025
    1,174
    2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
    https://tgam.ca/polls
    		 
  3. Leaders' Debates Participation Announcement (April 1, 2025)
On April 1, 2025, the Leaders' Debates Commission announced that Liberal Leader Mark Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, and Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault qualified for the debates on April 16 (French) and April 17 (English) (CBC News). The Green Party's inclusion, meeting two of three criteria, could enhance its visibility, potentially influencing voter perceptions and debate dynamics.
Contextual Factors and Broader Implications

The economic stories highlight the interconnectedness of Canada's economy with global trade, particularly with the U.S., and the domestic challenges of employment and housing affordability. The election stories reflect how external pressures, like tariffs, have reshaped campaign narratives, with polling shifts and debate participation adding layers of complexity to voter decision-making. Together, these developments underscore the need for robust policy responses to navigate economic uncertainty and political change.

Key Citations:

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